...SARA CRAWLING WESTWARD NEAR THE HONDURAS COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
As of 6:00 PM CST Fri Nov 15
the center of Sara was located near 16.2, -86.3
with movement W at 2 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 997 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

733
WTNT34 KNHC 152034
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number

9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL192024
300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...SARA SLUGGISHLY MEANDERING NEAR THE HONDURAS COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 86.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from the Nicaragua/Honduras Border westward to Punta Patuca.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal.

The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
from Belize City northward to Chetumal.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border.
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 86.2 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued slow
westward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a
more west-northwestward motion beginning late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the
northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before
approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the
day on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, as
long as the system remains offshore.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning
on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

...SARA MEANDERING NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
As of 12:00 PM CST Fri Nov 15
the center of Sara was located near 16.1, -86.1
with movement W at 2 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 997 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

000
WTNT44 KNHC 151451
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number

8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL192024
900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Since the prior advisory, Sara has become modestly better organized,
with an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass showing some improved
structural organization of the outer rainbands with the center
located near the northern coast of Honduras. The latest set of
coastal surface observations suggest that Sara's center might have
reformed just offshore overnight, between the Bay Islands and the
northern mainland of Honduras. With the improvement on microwave and
geostationary satellite imagery, subjective and objective estimates
are a bit higher this morning, and the initial intensity was nudged
up to 45 kt at 12 UTC, and remains at that value for this advisory.

Sara does appear to be slowing down, but still moving generally
westward, estimated at 270/4 kt. A large mid-level ridge draped
northwestward of Sara is expected to slow the forward motion of the
tropical storm to a crawl later today. However, this ridge is then
forecast to shift northeastward on Saturday, and Sara is then
expected to resume a somewhat faster westward to west-northwestward
motion this weekend, resulting in it moving into the Gulf of
Honduras on Saturday and into Belize on Sunday. The model guidance
this cycle is quite similar to the prior advisory, and the NHC
forecast track is largely an update of the previous one, near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

Sara's future intensity prior to moving into the Yucatan will
largely be governed by if and how far the tropical cyclone is able
to remain offshore. The latest track forecast does keep Sara
offshore just far enough that it could intensify a bit more before
moving onshore in Belize, and the latest NHC intensity is a little
higher, showing a 50 kt peak before landfall. This forecast is also
roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope. After moving into
the Yucatan, Sara is expected to quickly weaken, and what remains of
the system when it emerges into the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of
Mexico is not very favorable for redevelopment. Ultimately, Sara is
expected to open up into a trough, though its remnant moisture will
likely be absorbed in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the next
shortwave trough ejecting out of the western United States.

The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern
portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will
cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands, the
Caribbean coast of Guatemala and Belize where tropical storm
warnings are in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 16.1N 86.0W

45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 16.1N 86.3W

45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 16.2N 86.7W

50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 16.5N 87.2W

50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 16.8N 88.3W

50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0000Z 17.6N 90.0W

30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1200Z 19.2N 91.6W

25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin