...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR SARA... ...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE THREAT REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
As of 6:00 PM CST Sat Nov 16
the center of Sara was located near 16.5, -87.2
with movement W at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

000
WTNT44 KNHC 162042
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL192024
300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Sara's center has been pretty easy to find this afternoon, with
1-minute visible satellite imagery showing the low level center
beginning to move westward away from the Bay Islands of Honduras and
more into the Gulf of Honduras. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
mission flew through the center this afternoon, indicating little
change in Sara's intensity with a 1000 mb pressure, peak 850 mb
flight-level winds of 44 kt, and a dropsonde launched in the
southwestern side of the circulation also indicating a surface wind
gust of 37 kt. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this
advisory, though this could be a little generous based on the
aircraft observations.

The tropical storm now appears to be moving a bit faster to the
west, with the motion estimated at 280/4 kt. Mid-level ridging is
beginning to develop to the northeast of Sara and should help
continue to move the system westward to west-northwestward until the
tropical storm makes landfall in Belize at some point tomorrow
morning. The NHC track forecast this cycle has been shifted a bit
southward early on, partially related to initial position updates,
but still lies near the center of the track guidance envelope.

Intensity-wise, Sara's circulation has been significantly disrupted
despite remaining just offshore. The broader circulation of the
tropical storm has been interacting with the mountainous terrain of
northern Honduras, and I suspect that some of the drying downslope
flow off this higher terrain is playing some role in why Sara is
struggling to produce much deep convection near its center
currently. In fact most of the remaining convection is organized in
fragmented bands well to the north of the center. Despite the
relatively favorable environmental conditions, the current structure
of Sara argues against much intensification before it moves inland
over Belize in about 18 h, and the latest forecast shows little
change in strength before landfall. After moving inland, weakening
should commence and the global and hurricane-regional model guidance
continue to indicate Sara will open up into a trough as it emerges
into the Gulf of Mexico. However its remnant moisture will continue
to propagate northward and likely act as a focal point for enhanced
precipitation ahead of the next frontal boundary along the northern
Gulf coast by the middle of this week.

As stressed over the past couple of days, the primary hazard
associated with Sara remains catastrophic flash flooding, with
substantial rainfall continuing to occur near the north coast and
in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides
over northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall
will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 16.4N 87.0W

40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W

40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 17.1N 88.9W

30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0600Z 18.5N 90.7W

25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 17:53:10 GMT





Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 15:22:57 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

000
WTNT44 KNHC 161442
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL192024
900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Satellite imagery depicts that the center of Sara is located near
the Bay Islands of Honduras. The overall convective structure is
fairly disorganized, with a broken curved band on the northwest
side, and less convection near the center of circulation. Satellite
intensity estimates have decreased this advisory, although the
initial intensity is held steady at 40 kt, based on earlier
scatterometer data showing 35-40 knots over the western semicircle.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to
investigate the system, which should help better determine the
structure and intensity.

The storm appears to have started to drift west-northwestward with
an estimated motion of 290/02 kt. A mid-level ridge should
strengthen to the northeast of Sara later today, which is forecast
to cause the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-northwest
through Sunday, with a slight increase in forward speed. On the
forecast track, the system should make landfall in Belize just
beyond the 24 h forecast point. After landfall, Sara or its
remnants should turn northwestward as it moves across the southern
portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest NHC forecast track is
similar to the previous and lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

The current intensity forecast is for the system to hold steady
through landfall which is in good agreement with the intensity
guidance. Although, some intensity fluctuations are possible as Sara
moves over the Gulf of Honduras and approaches Belize during the
next 24 h. After landfall, the storm will weaken and models are in
good agreement that it should dissipate and open into a trough over
the Yucatan Peninsula before reaching the Bay of Campeche or the
Gulf of Mexico. Based on this model guidance, the intensity forecast
shows dissipation at 60 h, although that could occur sooner. The
remnants of Sara could interact with a frontal system to enhance
convection near the northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part
of next week.

The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides
over northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will
cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 16.3N 86.5W

40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 16.4N 86.9W

40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 16.9N 88.0W

40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W

30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/1200Z 19.2N 90.8W

30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly