Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL192024
2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 89.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 89.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 89.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.9N 91.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 89.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

NNNN

Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL192024
1200 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...SARA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 89.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The governments of Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico have discontinued
all Tropical Storm Warnings for their coastal regions.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sara
was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 89.0 West. Sara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
northwestward with some increase in forward speed is expected
through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move
further inland over the Yucatan Peninsula today before it opens up
into a trough by tonight or tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to continue as the depression
moves further inland, and Sara is expected to become a remnant low
before it opens up into a trough over the southern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Sara can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected
over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as
40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La
Esperanza.

Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical
Depression Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches
of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will
result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with
the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Sara, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

NNNN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 14:46:40 GMT





Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 14:46:40 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

469
WTNT34 KNHC 171444
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL192024
900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

...SARA NOW JUST INLAND OVER BELIZE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 88.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay
Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 88.4 West. Sara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn
northwestward or north-northwestward with some increase in forward
speed is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center
of Sara will move further inland over the Yucatan Peninsula today
before it opens up into a trough by tonight or tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast as the storm moves further inland, and Sara is
expected to become a remnant low before it opens up into a trough
over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. Recently, a surface station at Calabash Caye
offshore of the Belize mainland reported a sustained wind of 31 mph
(50 km/h) with a gust up to 41 mph (67 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected
over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as
40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La
Esperanza.

Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm
Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with
localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of
mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area in portions of Guatemala, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the
center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin