5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2020 02:41:00 GMT



Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2020 02:41:00 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number

2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL152020
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MUCH WHILE IT
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 75.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen
was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 75.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
turn to the east-northeast is expected to occur on Tuesday, and
this general motion should continue for a few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is not forecast to strengthen much, but it could
become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Little, if any, additional
strengthening is forecast thereafter, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin on Wednesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of North Carolina, especially along the Outer Banks. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions through tomorrow evening. Please consult products from
your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

NNNN

It was with great sadness that on 21 August, 2020 we learned of the death of Justice Neville Smith (Ret.). I extend my personal sympathies and the condolences of all members of the Judiciary of The Bahamas to his family on the loss of their loved one.

Justice Smith, a native of Barbados, came to the Bahamas in the 1960’s as a Legal Advisor in the Crown Lands Department.

In 1967 he was admitted to the Bahamas Bar and appointed as Crown Counsel in the Office of the Attorney General (“OAG”). Later in 1971, Justice Smith was appointed as Senior Counsel in the OAG and in 1975 he was appointed to the office of Director of Legal Affairs.

He served in that capacity until 1985 when he was appointed a Justice of the Supreme Court. In 1990 the title of Senior Justice was conferred upon Justice Smith by the Governor-General.

Justice Smith retired from the Judiciary in The Bahamas in 1995 to join the Judiciary of Eastern Caribbean Supreme Court where he served in Montserrat, St. Kitts & Nevis and the British Virgin Islands.

He returned to The Bahamas in 2001 and practiced law as a consultant with a private law firm until his retirement in 2019.

In 2015 Justice Smith was appointed as one of Her Majesty’s Counsel carrying the designation of QC.

Justice Smith provided almost thirty years of public service to The Bahamas and during that period he made a significant contribution to the development of our country.

Through his scholarship and judicial acumen he also contributed to the development of our jurisprudence during his tenure as a Justice of the Supreme Court.

Justice Smith was meticulous, thorough and adept in the discharge of his judicial duties and served with distinction. He also mentored many young attorneys at the Bar who honed their legal skills under his guidance.

Justice Neville Smith will be remembered, amongst his many accomplishments, as a skilled, learned and successful counsel and attorney at law, a loyal and adroit public officer and an astute jurist.

May his soul rest in peace.

Brian M. Moree
Chief Justice.

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

000
WTNT45 KNHC 312044
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number

1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL152020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure offshore of
the Carolinas has had convection organized in bands since before
dawn, and scatterometer plus an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter mission data confirm that the circulation is closed. Thus,
this is now a tropical depression, and the initial wind speed is
set to 30 kt in accordance with 25-30 kt ASCAT-A data plus buoy
42001 readings which earlier had an adjusted 10-m peak of 30 kt.

The depression is moving northeastward at about 10 kt. The system
should gradually turn toward the east-northeast by Wednesday due to
it moving around the northwest side of the subtropical ridge, then
move eastward in a few days around the flat ridge. By late week,
the cyclone could slow and eventually turn back toward the northeast
around a rather strong mid-latitude high pressure system over the
northeast Atlantic. There is considerable spread in the guidance,
which really seems to depend upon whether the system stays coherent,
like the official forecast, or would become a shallow low-level
swirl by 120h and end up slower and south of forecast track. This
forecast is near the corrected-consensus guidance, leaning toward
the ECMWF-based models, and it should be considered of low
confidence.

Gradual strengthening is expected over the next day or so while the
depression remains in a low-to-moderate shear environment. Although
the depression is expected to be traversing the warm Gulf Stream for
the next several days, wind shear is expected to greatly increase by
Wednesday, which should limit intensification. In fact there's
some chance the system could decay and lose any deep convection in
rather strong shear in a few days. However, since it likely will be
moving near the Gulf Stream, I suspect it will continue to pulse
thunderstorm activity and stay alive throughout the period. The NHC
intensity forecast is near or just above the model consensus on
that reasoning, closest to the HWRF model. The cyclone could
become extratropical (or a remnant low) by the end of the forecast,
but this is very uncertain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 32.6N 76.5W

30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 33.8N 75.0W

35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 34.9N 72.4W

40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 35.8N 69.7W

40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 36.7N 67.0W

40 KT 45 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 37.6N 63.7W

35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 38.2N 60.5W

35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 39.0N 55.0W

35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 41.5N 49.5W

35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake